黄惠宁,阎春恒,向巍. 公众对地震预报认识和理解程度调查分析[J]. 华北地震科学,2022, 40(1):106-111, 121. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003−1375.2022.01.017.
引用本文: 黄惠宁,阎春恒,向巍. 公众对地震预报认识和理解程度调查分析[J]. 华北地震科学,2022, 40(1):106-111, 121. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003−1375.2022.01.017.
HUANG Huining,YAN Chunheng,XIANG Wei. Analysis of Network Questionnaire Survey on Earthquake Magnitude[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences,2022, 40(1):106-111, 121. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003−1375.2022.01.017.
Citation: HUANG Huining,YAN Chunheng,XIANG Wei. Analysis of Network Questionnaire Survey on Earthquake Magnitude[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences,2022, 40(1):106-111, 121. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003−1375.2022.01.017.

公众对地震预报认识和理解程度调查分析

Analysis of Network Questionnaire Survey on Earthquake Magnitude

  • 摘要: 为准确深入了解公众对地震基础知识、地震预报的认识理解程度和地震预报公共服务的需求,利用乐调查和微信平台,开展了关于地震预报认识的网络调查。结果显示,公众对概念性的地震知识掌握较好,但理解程度不高。对地震预报发布结果的精度要求较高,同时也对预测震级的偏差表现出较大的接受度。对现行规范标准下的预测意见表述理解和接受程度较高,但不能接受采用类似气象预报的跨级表述方式。鉴于当前地震预测仍存在较大的不确定性,预测意见应当同时给出发震概率。地震中长期预测意见可以考虑逐步向社会公开,为推进全面防灾减灾提供指导意见。公众对防震减灾公共服务的需求呈现出多元化特征,因此,新时期地震预报公共服务工作可以从科普着手,充分发挥地震部门的权威性,利用好地震宣传平台,分层次、多模式的宣传地震预报工作,帮助和引导公众更深层次认识和理解地震预报工作。

     

    Abstract: In order to accurately and deeply understand the national public’s understanding of the basic earthquake knowledge, earthquake prediction and public service demand for earthquake prediction, a network survey on earthquake prediction was carried out by using Le survey and wechat platform. The results show that the public has a good grasp of conceptual earthquake knowledge, but their understanding is not high. The accuracy of earthquake prediction results is required, and the deviation of predicted magnitude is also accepted. It has a high degree of understanding and acceptance of the expression of prediction opinions under the current specifications and standards, but it is not acceptable to adopt the cross level expression method similar to meteorological forecast. Since there is still great uncertainty in the current earthquake prediction, the prediction opinion should give the starting earthquake probability at the same time. The medium and long-term prediction opinions of earthquakes can be gradually made public to provide guidance for promoting comprehensive disaster prevention and reduction. The public's demand for public services for earthquake prevention and disaster reduction shows diversified characteristics. Therefore, the public service of earthquake prediction in the new era can start from popular science, give full play to the authority of the earthquake department, make good use of the earthquake publicity platform, publicize earthquake prediction at different levels and in multiple modes, and help and guide the public to have a deeper understanding and understanding of earthquake prediction.

     

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