Abstract: This paper analyzes the fluctuation of small earthquake activity in Beijing area since 1997. The results show that there is a certain correlation between the fluctuation characteristics of small earthquake activity in Beijing area and the significant earthquakes（M_L≥3.9）in Beijing and surrounding area. The main performance is that if the month frequency of M_L2.0～2.9 earthquakes in Beijing area is greater than 4, there is a possibility that the earthquakes with magnitude above significant will occur in Beijing and surrounding area（39.5～41.0°N, 115.0～117.6°E）within half a year, the corresponding rate is 75%, the false ratio is 25%, omission rate is 14.3%, R=0.72, R₀=0.44, it has good prediction efficiency, it may provide the prediction basis for the significant earthquake seismic analysis in Beijing and surrounding area.