郭培兰,莫佩婵,李莎,等. 广西东部两次5级地震预测回顾与讨论[J]. 华北地震科学,2021, 39(2):96-104. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003−1375.2021.02.014.
引用本文: 郭培兰,莫佩婵,李莎,等. 广西东部两次5级地震预测回顾与讨论[J]. 华北地震科学,2021, 39(2):96-104. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003−1375.2021.02.014.
GUO Peilan,MO Peichan,LI Sha,et al. Review and Discussion on the Prediction of Two Ms5 Earthquakes in Eastern Guangxi[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences,2021, 39(2):96-104. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003−1375.2021.02.014.
Citation: GUO Peilan,MO Peichan,LI Sha,et al. Review and Discussion on the Prediction of Two Ms5 Earthquakes in Eastern Guangxi[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences,2021, 39(2):96-104. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003−1375.2021.02.014.

广西东部两次5级地震预测回顾与讨论

Review and Discussion on the Prediction of Two Ms5 Earthquakes in Eastern Guangxi

  • 摘要: 2016—2019年间,广西东部发生2016年7月31日苍梧5.4级地震和2019年10月12日北流5.2级地震,震前给出了正确的长期、中期和短期预测意见。两次地震的长期预测主要依据是东南沿海地震带中强地震期幕特征及桂西、桂东南5级地震所具有的韵律特征,是长期预测的主要依据;中期和短期预测依据主要是3级地震增强异常、震群活动、桂平西山水位、北海咸田水位、合浦石康水位、南宁石埠水位等前兆异常及桂北弱震区2.8级地震平静;发震地点的依据主要是4级显著地震、震群有序分布、地震条带、地震空区、地磁低点位移等地震活动异常和地震前兆异常在空间上的分布。

     

    Abstract: From 2016 to 2019, two earthquakes occurred in eastern Guangxi. The first was the Cangwu earthquake of magnitude 5.4 on July 31, 2016, and the second was the Beiliu earthquake of magnitude 5.2 on October 12, 2019. Before the two earthquakes, correct medium-term and short-term prediction opinions were given. By analyzing the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the anomalies before the two Ms5 earthquakes, it is found that the period characteristics of moderate strong earthquakes in southeast coastal seismic belt and the rhythm characteristics of Ms5 earthquakes in west and southeast Guangxi are the main basis for long-term prediction. While the anomalies of Ms3 earthquake enhancement, earthquake swarm activity, Guiping Xishan water level, Beihai Xiantian water level, Hepu Shikang water level, Nanning Shibu water level and other precursory anomalies, as well as the calm breaking anomalies of Ms2.8 earthquake in the weak earthquake area of Northern Guangx are the main basis for short-term and imminent prediction of Ms5 earthquakes in Eastern Guangxi. The spatial distribution of seismicity anomaly and earthquake precursor anomaly, such as remarkable Ms4 earthquake, orderly distribution of earthquake swarm, seismic belt, seismic gap, low displacement of geomagnetic field, is the main basis for determining the location of the earthquakes.

     

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