邵永新,王熠熙,李悦,等. 天津流体异常与河北唐山市古冶区 M S5.1地震预测[J]. 华北地震科学,2020, 38(4):92-98. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003−1375.2020.04.015.
引用本文: 邵永新,王熠熙,李悦,等. 天津流体异常与河北唐山市古冶区 M S5.1地震预测[J]. 华北地震科学,2020, 38(4):92-98. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003−1375.2020.04.015.
SHAO Yongxin,WANG Yixi,LI Yue,et al. Tianjin Fluid Anomaly and Hebei Tangshan Guye M S5.1 Earthquake Prediction[J]. North China Earthqauke Sciences,2020, 38(4):92-98. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003−1375.2020.04.015.
Citation: SHAO Yongxin,WANG Yixi,LI Yue,et al. Tianjin Fluid Anomaly and Hebei Tangshan Guye M S5.1 Earthquake Prediction[J]. North China Earthqauke Sciences,2020, 38(4):92-98. doi:10.3969/j.issn.1003−1375.2020.04.015.

天津流体异常与河北唐山市古冶区MS5.1地震预测

Tianjin Fluid Anomaly and Hebei Tangshan Guye MS5.1 Earthquake Prediction

  • 摘要: 分析了2020年以来天津地区流体观测项目汉1井水温畸变和王3井水位异常的特征及其产生的原因,给出了两口井异常的预测指标;根据汉1井水温畸变和王3井水位异常,流体学科对未来可能发生地震的时间、地点和强度进行了一定程度的预测,但仍比所发生的古冶MS5.1地震震级偏低。通过与2006年7月4日河北文安MS5.1地震前天津地区出现的异常相比较,虽然数量上相当,但异常信度低,经验预报仅能将震级提高到MS4.5左右;文安MS5.1地震前,王3、王4井水汞高值提供给我们一些5级地震信息,而此次古冶MS5.1地震则没有发现类似情况,同时台网观测项目的增多也没有提供给我们更多的异常信息。这些不仅说明了经验预测的局限性,也体现了台网信息检测能力不足。

     

    Abstract: The characteristics and causes of water temperature distortion in Han 1 well and water level anomaly in Wang 3 well of fluid observation project in Tianjin area since 2020 are analyzed, and the anomaly prediction index of two wells is given. According to the water temperature distortion of Han1 well and water level anomaly of Wang3 well, the fluid science group predicted the time, place and intensity of future earthquakes to a certain extent, but the magnitude is still lower than that of Guye Ms5.1 earthquake. Compared with the anomalies occurred in Tianjin before the Wen'an Ms5.1 earthquake on July 4, 2006 in Hebei Province, although the number of anomalies is similar, the reliability of anomalies is low, and the empirical prediction can only increase the magnitude to Ms4.5. Before the Wen'an Ms5.1 earthquake, the high value of water mercury in Wang3 and wang4 wells provided us with some earthquake information of Ms5.1, but no similar situation was found in Guye Ms5.1 earthquake. At the same time, the increase of network observation items does not provide us with more abnormal information. This not only shows the limitation of the empirical prediction, but also shows the lack of the information detection ability of the network.

     

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