张继艳, 王新安, 雍珊珊, 黄继攀. 基于ARIMA模型的九寨沟7.0级地震前兆异常检测[J]. 华北地震科学, 2019, 37(1): 28-33. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-1375.2019.01.005
引用本文: 张继艳, 王新安, 雍珊珊, 黄继攀. 基于ARIMA模型的九寨沟7.0级地震前兆异常检测[J]. 华北地震科学, 2019, 37(1): 28-33. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-1375.2019.01.005
ZHANG Jiyan, WANG Xinan, YONG Shanshan, HUANG Jipan. Precursory Anomaly Detection of Jiuzhaigou M7.0 Earthquake Based on ARIMA Model[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences, 2019, 37(1): 28-33. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-1375.2019.01.005
Citation: ZHANG Jiyan, WANG Xinan, YONG Shanshan, HUANG Jipan. Precursory Anomaly Detection of Jiuzhaigou M7.0 Earthquake Based on ARIMA Model[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences, 2019, 37(1): 28-33. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-1375.2019.01.005

基于ARIMA模型的九寨沟7.0级地震前兆异常检测

Precursory Anomaly Detection of Jiuzhaigou M7.0 Earthquake Based on ARIMA Model

  • 摘要: 运用时间序列方法ARIMA对九寨沟县7.0级地震的震前15天距震中500 km范围内已布设的14个AETA系统台站的低频电磁均值数据进行地震前兆异常检测。结果表明:在震前的15天范围内,距震中500 km内9个AETA台站出现异常;从综合14个台站数据异常情况热力图可以看出,有4个台站的异常现象持续时间达9天以上,尤其松潘地震台在震前3~5天出现明显异常;从异常台站地理分布看出,14个台站中出现明显异常的9个台站位于中国大陆一级板块边界附近。

     

    Abstract: This paper used the time series method of ARIMA to detect the precursory anomalies from the low frequency electromagnetic average data recorded by 14 AETA stations within the range of 500 km from the epicentre 15 days before the Jiuzhaigou M7.0 earthquake. The results show that within 15 days before the earthquake, 9 AETA stations within 500 km from the epicenter appear anomalies. From the thermodynamic map of 14 stations' data anomalies, it can be seen that the abnormal phenomena of 4 stations lasted for more than 9 days, in particular, the Songpan seismic station experienced significant anomalies at 3~5 d before the earthquake. From the geographic distribution of abnormal stations, it can be seen that the abnormal phenomena of 4 stations lasted for more than 9 days. The 9 stations with obvious anomalies in the 14 stations are located near the first-level plate boundary of the mainland of China.

     

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