扈志刚, 陈绍绪. 多层递阶方法在估计地震活动趋势中的应用[J]. 华北地震科学, 1992, 10(3): 60-65.
引用本文: 扈志刚, 陈绍绪. 多层递阶方法在估计地震活动趋势中的应用[J]. 华北地震科学, 1992, 10(3): 60-65.
Hu Zhigang, Chen Shao Xu. THE APPLICATION OF THE MULTI-INCREASING STEP METHOD TO THE ESTIMATION OF THE FUTURE SEISMICITY LEVEL[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences, 1992, 10(3): 60-65.
Citation: Hu Zhigang, Chen Shao Xu. THE APPLICATION OF THE MULTI-INCREASING STEP METHOD TO THE ESTIMATION OF THE FUTURE SEISMICITY LEVEL[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences, 1992, 10(3): 60-65.

多层递阶方法在估计地震活动趋势中的应用

THE APPLICATION OF THE MULTI-INCREASING STEP METHOD TO THE ESTIMATION OF THE FUTURE SEISMICITY LEVEL

  • 摘要: 本文应用文献提出动态系统预报的新方法,选用地震频度、折合频度、震级差等输入变量,建立华北未来一定时间段内发生最大震级的多层递阶数学模型,并应用该模型对华北地震活动趋势进行了估计。文中把应用该方法与固定参数预报方法所得结果作了对比。由于该方法在预报过程中充分考虑了系统的时变特性,克服了一般预报方法因固定参数而造成的较大误差,预报趋势的准确率和预报精度都有提高。

     

    Abstract: A multi-increasing step mathematics model for the estimation of the largest.earthquake magnitude in coming period has been set up by a new dynamic system prediction method to be presented in reference No.1, of which the selected several input variable are the seismic fre-quency, the converted frequency and the magnitude interval et al.The estimation for furure seismic trend in North China has been made by this model.A comparison between the results by this method and the fixed parameters prediction method has been shown in this paper.Be-cause of the full consideration of the temporal variation of the system in the prediction pro-cess in this method, the larger error caused from fixed parameters in the general prediction method would be overcome to improve the quality of the earthquake prediction.

     

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