晋冀蒙地区近期地震危险性估计

THE ESTIMATION FOR RECENT SEISMIC RISK IN THE CONJUNCTURE AREA OF HEBEI, SHANXI AND INNER MONGOLIS

摘要: 以地展构造和小震应力场的研究为基础,分析1970~1986年本区地震活动性前兆特征,提取与近期地震危险性关系密切的信息,采用模糊数学评判方法对各参量进行综合评判;给出可能发生各强震级的危险性概率,以期较为客观地估计本区的地震趋势。

Abstract: According to seismotectonics and microearthquakes stress field, the pracursor characteristics of the seis-micity from 1970 to 1936 in this area have been analyzed. After the extraction of the precursor information closely related to recent seismic risk, the synthetic evaluation for parameters his been proceeded by the fuzzy method. The possible risk probabilities of the various magnitudes have been given so as estimate the futira tendency.

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