承德地区形变资料前兆异常特征及映震能力分析

ANALYSIS ON REFLECTING EARTHQUAKE CAPABILITIES OF DEFORMATION DATA IN CHENGDE AREA

摘要: 主要通过Nakai拟合、振幅因子以及非潮汐拟合常数3种方法对承德地区各个台站的各形变手段所得数据拟合处理,进行前兆异常分析,同时与该地区异常有效评价范围内的地震联系在一起,分析地震前兆异常与地震之间的关系。通过分台站、分手段、分拟合方法对各形变仪器映震能力进行R值评价,指出了形变异常观测在地震监测预报应用过程中存在的优点与不足,为进一步研究形变异常与地震关系提供必要的理论基础。

Abstract: Using three methods including Nakai fitting analysis, amplitude factor analysis and non-tidal fitting, on basis of deformation data, this paper analyze the relationship between deformation anomaly and earthquake in Chengde area.Through the R evaluation, reflecting earthquake capabilities of each deformation instrument of Chengde central seismostation are evaluated, the advantages and the disadvantages of the deformation anomalies in earthquake monitoring and predication are pointed out.