罗兰格, 孙佩卿. 地震综合效应场函数及其在地震预报中的应用(三)地震综合效应场函数在地震短期预报中的应用[J]. 华北地震科学, 1994, 12(4): 1-8.
引用本文: 罗兰格, 孙佩卿. 地震综合效应场函数及其在地震预报中的应用(三)地震综合效应场函数在地震短期预报中的应用[J]. 华北地震科学, 1994, 12(4): 1-8.
Luo Lange, Sun Peiqing. THE FUNCTION OF SEISMIC COMPREHENSIVE EFFECT FIELD AND ITS APPLICATION IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION (3) THE APPLICATION OF THE FUNCTION OF SEIXMIC COMPREHENSIVE EFFECT FIELD IN SHORT-TERMPREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKE[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences, 1994, 12(4): 1-8.
Citation: Luo Lange, Sun Peiqing. THE FUNCTION OF SEISMIC COMPREHENSIVE EFFECT FIELD AND ITS APPLICATION IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION (3) THE APPLICATION OF THE FUNCTION OF SEIXMIC COMPREHENSIVE EFFECT FIELD IN SHORT-TERMPREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKE[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences, 1994, 12(4): 1-8.

地震综合效应场函数及其在地震预报中的应用(三)地震综合效应场函数在地震短期预报中的应用

THE FUNCTION OF SEISMIC COMPREHENSIVE EFFECT FIELD AND ITS APPLICATION IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION (3) THE APPLICATION OF THE FUNCTION OF SEIXMIC COMPREHENSIVE EFFECT FIELD IN SHORT-TERMPREDICTION OF EARTHQUAKE

  • 摘要: 本文在前两篇论文的基础上,进一步将地震综合效应场函数方法应用于地震短期预报。以大华北地区(33°-43°N,110°-125°E)为例,应用一年内该范围内发生的ML≥3级地震的综合效应场预测下一季度MS≥4级地震的发生地点。应用1970-1990年的资料,计算预测了共80个季度,其中预测区内发生的地震占应预测地震总数的83%,有震预测区占总预测区的50.5%。预测区内的地震密度是预测区外的60-70倍,效果颇为明显。同时还对月预报及年度预报的应用进行了尝试,其效果也较好。

     

    Abstract: In this paper, basing on the previous two papers, the function method of seismic comprehensiveeffect field is further applied in short-term of earthquake. Taking large North China area (33°-43°N, 110-125°E) as an example, the comprehensive effect field of the earthquakes of ML ≥ 3 occurred in thearea in one year is used to predict the occurrence places of earthquakes of MS ≥ 4 in the mext season. 80seasons are calculated and predicted by the data from 1970 to 1990, the earthquakes occurred in the predicted area makes up 83% of the total earthquakes which should be predicted, the predicted area whereearthquakes occurred makes up 50.5% of the total predicted area. The earthquake density in predicted area is 60-70 times larger than that outside the predicted area, the effect is quite clear. Meanwhileit is tried to be applied in monthly prediction and year prediction, and its effect is relatively good.

     

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