Abstract: In this paper, a new method of establishing differential equation time continuous model (DM (n, h)model) is used to evaluate the strong aftershocks (ML 4.7) in late period of Tangshan seismic region, the probability of earthquades prediction in small regions is also given by DM (n, h) model. GM (n, h) model is compared with DM (n, h). It is found that DM (n, h) model has more advantages thanGM (n, h) model.