Abstract:
Utilizing more than 80 earthquake sequences with magnitude
Ms ≥ 5.0 which are classified into three types:main shock-after shock type, strong earthquake swarm type (including double main earthquake type) and isolated shock type by traditional classification method given by reference1, the relationship between the first big earthquake
M1 and the largest succeding eathquake
M2 has been studied, and the linear equation
M2=a+b
M1 and a, b value have been obtained for different types respectively.The comparison between
M2 calcuated from the equation derived in this paper and
M2 in the real sequence shows that the accuracy Of the internal coincidence test exceeds 90% under the standard|△
M| ≤ 0.5. It is proved that the accuracy is adout 90% for the extrapolation test using medium-small earthquake sequences and historical or modern medium-strong earthquake data. So this method shows relatively high practiCal value in post-shock trend prediction and the estimation of the largest succeeding earthquake in field study, To appleing this method conveniently to early trend diagnoses in field study, the synthesized classification indexes of the earthquake sequences have been achieved from the sequences data within 24 hours after
M1 had drawn form research pattern recognition method.