刘允清, 蔡华昌, 赵军, 冯书明. 河北省北部地震灾害经济损失预测[J]. 华北地震科学, 1998, 16(4): 39-50.
引用本文: 刘允清, 蔡华昌, 赵军, 冯书明. 河北省北部地震灾害经济损失预测[J]. 华北地震科学, 1998, 16(4): 39-50.
Liu Yunqing, Cai Huachang, Zhao Jun, Feng Shuming. PREDICTION OF ECONOMIC LOSSES CAUSED BY SEISMIC HAZARD IN NORTHERN PART OF HEBEI PROVINCE[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences, 1998, 16(4): 39-50.
Citation: Liu Yunqing, Cai Huachang, Zhao Jun, Feng Shuming. PREDICTION OF ECONOMIC LOSSES CAUSED BY SEISMIC HAZARD IN NORTHERN PART OF HEBEI PROVINCE[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences, 1998, 16(4): 39-50.

河北省北部地震灾害经济损失预测

PREDICTION OF ECONOMIC LOSSES CAUSED BY SEISMIC HAZARD IN NORTHERN PART OF HEBEI PROVINCE

  • 摘要: 地震灾害经济损失预测是震害预测的重要组成部分,在河北省北部地震危险性概率分析、建筑物、生命线工程等震害预测的基础上,确定了震害经济损失预测的各种参数,以乡(镇)、区(市辖区)为基础统计单元,采用动态预测模型,预测河北省北部2005年前震害经济期望损失:直接经济损失19.74亿元,总经济损失31.92亿元。若怀来发生5.5级和6级假想地震,震害经济损失分别为3.06亿元和4.82亿元,死亡1人和11人,提出了减轻震害经济损失的对策。该项研究不仅为本区域未来地震经济损失快速评估提供了科学依据,而且其预测方法也适用于其他地区的震害经济损失预测。

     

    Abstract: The prediction of economic losses caused by seismic hazard is an important part of the prediction of seismic hazard. Based on the probability analysis of seismic risk and the prediction seismic hazard of buildings and life line engneerings in northern part of Hebei Province, various parameters of the prediction of economic losses caused by seismic hazard are determined. Taking the township and the district(under the city) as basic statistical units, using dynamic prediction model, the expected economic losses caused by seismic hazard before the year of 2005 in northern part of Hebei Province are predicted as follows: the direct economic losses will be one thousand nine hundred and seventy-four million yuan Renminbi, the total economic losses will be three thousand one hundred and ninety-two million yuan. If an earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or 6 is assumed to occur in Huailai, the economic losses will be three hundred and six million yuan and four hundrde and eightytwo million yuan, one person and eleven persons will be dead respectively caused by seismic hazard. The countermesures to reduce economic losses caused by sets mic are presented. The research not only can provide scentific basis for a quick evaluation of economic losses caused by future seismic hazard in the researched region but also its prediction method can be used in the prediction of economic losses caused by seismic hazard in other regions.

     

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