蒋淳, 陈化然, 吴晓芝. 地震活动中短期预测指标研究及其应用[J]. 华北地震科学, 1999, 17(3): 67-74.
引用本文: 蒋淳, 陈化然, 吴晓芝. 地震活动中短期预测指标研究及其应用[J]. 华北地震科学, 1999, 17(3): 67-74.
Jiang Chun, Chen Huaran, Wu xiaozhi. STUDIES ON SEISMIC INDICES FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION AND THEIR TEMPORAL-SPATIAL EVOLUTION PICTURES[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences, 1999, 17(3): 67-74.
Citation: Jiang Chun, Chen Huaran, Wu xiaozhi. STUDIES ON SEISMIC INDICES FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION AND THEIR TEMPORAL-SPATIAL EVOLUTION PICTURES[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences, 1999, 17(3): 67-74.

地震活动中短期预测指标研究及其应用

STUDIES ON SEISMIC INDICES FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION AND THEIR TEMPORAL-SPATIAL EVOLUTION PICTURES

  • 摘要: 在研究应用模糊地震学和统计地震学某些方法的基础上,通过实际预报检验,对一些中短期预报较好的方法,如地震活动平静异常_q值,自相似从属函数_s 值,自助统计方差eB 值进行深入研究,探索孕震后期地震活动图像演化特征。结果表明:_q、_s、eB 值能够较好地反映地震前中短期异常变化特征,可以作为中短期预报定量化指标;空间时序图像系列的显示,能定性反映震前异常区域及地震活动图像演化特征。

     

    Abstract: The complicity of seismicities is that not only they cannot go back and their precursors are not simply reappearing,but also the random features of their temporal and spatial evolution processes.Therefore,as the physical process of earthquakes is not very clear to us,the application of the statistical methods of having physical basis,fuzzy mathematical methods and non-linear theory may give some effective ways for earthquake prediction.Seismic quietness anomaly μq-value,self-similarity subordinate function of seismic series μs-value and bootstrap statistical deviation of seismic dispersion eB-value show sound effects for mid-term and short-term earthquake prediction.

     

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