华北地区地震学参数预报效能分析

ANALYSIS TO THE PREDICTION EFFECT OF SEISMOLOGICAL PARAMETERS IN NORTH CHINA AREA

摘要: 分析了1980年1月1日至1999年12月31日华北地区缺震曲线、4级地震频度、4级地震连续平静天数异常对华北地区中强、强震的预报效能,发现这三个参数的报对率在58%~61%之间,虚报率在28%~33%之间,R>R₀,这三个参数有较好的预报效果。

Abstract: The earthquake-lack curve from Jan.1,1980 to Dec.31,1999,frequency and continuous calm time of M₄ earthquake are analyzed,and its prediction ability for medium and strong earthquakes is studied.The results show that the successful rate of prediction to the three parameters is between 58% to 61%,false rate is in 28% to 33%,and R>R₀.Thus the three parameters have good prediction effect.