李淑莲, 王勤彩, 胡新亮, 边庆凯. 1999年11月1日大同-阳高Ms5.4级地震预报纪实[J]. 华北地震科学, 2000, 18(3): 38-44.
引用本文: 李淑莲, 王勤彩, 胡新亮, 边庆凯. 1999年11月1日大同-阳高Ms5.4级地震预报纪实[J]. 华北地震科学, 2000, 18(3): 38-44.
Li Shulian, Wang Qincai, Hu Xinliang, Bian Qingkai. THE RECORD OF PREDICTION FOR THE DATONG YANGGAO MS5.4 EARTHQUSAKE ON NOVEMBER 1,1999[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences, 2000, 18(3): 38-44.
Citation: Li Shulian, Wang Qincai, Hu Xinliang, Bian Qingkai. THE RECORD OF PREDICTION FOR THE DATONG YANGGAO MS5.4 EARTHQUSAKE ON NOVEMBER 1,1999[J]. North China Earthquake Sciences, 2000, 18(3): 38-44.

1999年11月1日大同-阳高Ms5.4级地震预报纪实

THE RECORD OF PREDICTION FOR THE DATONG YANGGAO MS5.4 EARTHQUSAKE ON NOVEMBER 1,1999

  • 摘要: 1999年11月1日在山西省大同-阳高地区发生了一次Ms5.4级地震。这次地震前笔者采用测震学方法对华北地震活动性进行分析研究,结果发现华北缺震曲线,华北地区ML≥4.0级季频度出现低值异常,邢台震区月频度曲线6月份小震活动增强。北京地区缺震曲线、频度曲线都出现低值异常。1 999年6月份在晋冀蒙三省交界地区的大同附近小震活动丛集、频度与蠕变加速,并于9月12日发生了左云ML4.7级信号震。据此,笔者在1 999年9月8日至10月27日期间河北省地震局分析预报中心召开的历次各种类型的会商会上共19次对这次地震发生的时间、空间、强度三要素提出了短期预报(皆填写了河北省地震局分析预报中心会商登记卡片)。

     

    Abstract: An MS5.4 earthquake occurred in Datong Yanggao area in Shanxi Province on November 1,1999.Before this earthquake,the seismic activities in North China were analyzed and studied by seismometry method.It is found that a lack of earthquake curve appeared in North China,the sismic frequency of ML ≥ 4.0 earthquakes in North China area showed a low value anomaly,and the small earthquake activity increased in Xingtai seismic zone in June.The lack of earthquake curve and frequency curve all showed low value anomalies.Small earthquakes clustered,the frequency and creep increased near Datong in the juncture of Shanxi,Hebei and Inner Mongolia provinces in June,and the Zuoyun ML 4.7 earthquake occurred on September 12,which was regarded as a signal earthquake.Base on this,the short term predictions to the occurrence time,space and magnitude of the Datong Yanggao Ms5.4 earthquake were made 19 times at various seismic situation consderation meeetings held by Center for Analysis and Prediction of Seismological Breau of Hebei Province from September 8 to October 27,1999.

     

/

返回文章
返回